Nobody is really clear which direction this is going in, but they are clear about the two big variables that could change that.
One is waning immunity, so if immunity wanes faster than expected, you’ll see a bigger increase, and that’s why it’s so important to get booster shots going in the vulnerable and the elderly in particular.
The second is the behavioural change, how quickly we return to pre-pandemic behaviours. if you aggregate the models, most are saying ‘Actually, it looks fairly flat, don’t expect the very big peaks we’ve had in the past, it looks fairly flat, but at a very high level at the moment.’
So the high level remains a concern and from a high level you can go up quite quickly.
In a separate appearance on Sky News, he said:
I think the vaccines have made an absolutely massive difference and now we also have antiviral medicines coming along. We’ve definitely got the armamentarium we need to tackle this now. Keeping immunity high is really, really important.
We’re a bit uncertain as to which direction the levels go at at the moment, so I think we’ve got a pretty difficult winter ahead of us.